Eleven-eleven Guber Polls and the Outcome, Matters Arising
By Abdullahi Ocheja
The title of this piece depicts a significant moments in the political history of Nigeria, being the first ever election to be held under the supervision of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration.
The Phrase 11-11 of 2023 is all about the upcoming governorship elections in Bayelsa, Imo and Kogi State. The atmospheres within these States are highly charged and awaiting to explode, going by the characters of political actors and antecedents of electoral malfeasance recorded in the past elections.
Again, if the words of National Security Adviser (NSA), Mallam Nuhu Ribadu is to be taken serious regarding the upcoming elections in these three States, then it should be seen that all the relevant security agencies for election are mobilized and directed to clampdown on political thugs and unscrupulous INEC officials both the ad-hoc and the main staff who would want to pervert the outcomes of the election in favour of money bags and unpopular candidates.
Though, with the convened media conference of security agencies under the leadership of NSA Mallam Nuhu Ribadu and president Tinubu’s body language of not having anointed candidate, assurances and hopes are alive because of the confidence reposed on the integrity of Mallam Nuhu Ribadu and president Tinubu as upright personalities that can be trusted.
With clear atmosphere of peace and tranquility, the elections in these three States would be too close to call. It is obvious that two strong factors of ethnicity and party interest would inform the direction of choices being made by voters on the ballot. And for some States with homogenous mixture it would be based mostly on party’s acceptability and salient factors.
Undertaking the hypothetical argument of these two factors on each of the three States would likely presents the following scenario;
– Kogi State: Due to heterogeneous mixture of the State, political actors and party candidates are in sharp division along ethnic line and little or no attention given to party interest.
The three Senatorial Districts of Kogi State namely: Kogi-East, Kogi-West and Kogi-Central has in each of them one notable or popular candidate and others. Kogi-East, for instance has Muritala Yakubu Ajaka of SDP as the most acceptable amongst the Igala-Bassa people whom are the dominant tribe in the Kogi-East Senatorial District. Kogi-West, equally has Dino Melaye of the PDP who is highly respected and followed by the Okun people whom are the dominant tribe in Kogi-West.
Though, Leke Abejide of ADC is equally being followed and supported by some sections of Okun people of Kogi-West. And in Kogi-Central Senatorial District, Usman Ahmed Ododo of APC is the most acceptable amongst the Ebira people whom are the dominant tribe in the Kogi-Central.
It is anticipated that each of these popular candidates would score up to 70% of votes cast in their respective Senatorial District and possibly take away 25% of the remaining 30% from the opponents’ Senatorial District where such candidate is accepted and liked by the people of the district.
– Bayelsa State: The contest is between two popular candidates of APC and PDP. The State is homogenous in mixture and would be only seen polarized along the party line. Bayelsa-Central Senatorial District is where Douye Diri of PDP come from and he enjoys the support of the people of his Senatorial District. While Bayelsa-East Senatorial District is where Timipre Silva of APC come from and he has a total support of the Senatorial District.
Both APC and PDP are expected to coast home to victory with up to 80% of the votes cast in their respective Senatorial District, thereby leaving the remaining 10% to the opposition parties. The battle ground would be in Bayelsa-West Senatorial District which has no notable candidate from the Senatorial District.
– Imo State: The major political parties in this State has its candidates from the three Senatorial Districts and somehow similar to Kogi State arrangement. Here the APC candidate Hope Uzodinma is from the Orlu Senatorial District, while PDP candidate Chris Anyanwu is from the Owerri zone and LP candidate Athan Achonu who is from the Okigwe zone will square it up with the other two candidates. The election victory in this state will be determined by the popularity of the candidate and acceptability of the party of the candidates by the people. This is possible because the State is homogenous in mixture and the three candidates are of the same tribe.
Written By:
ABDULLAHI OCHEJA .S.
08055521875
From FCT – Abuja
abdulochess@yahoo.com
